Electron. J. Diff. Eqns., Vol. 2007(2007), No. 115, pp. 1-12.

An epidemiological model of Rift Valley fever

Holly D. Gaff, David M. Hartley, Nicole P. Leahy

We present and explore a novel mathematical model of the epidemiology of Rift Valley Fever (RVF). RVF is an Old World, mosquito-borne disease affecting both livestock and humans. The model is an ordinary differential equation model for two populations of mosquito species, those that can transmit vertically and those that cannot, and for one livestock population. We analyze the model to find the stability of the disease-free equlibrium and test which model parameters affect this stability most significantly. This model is the basis for future research into the predication of future outbreaks in the Old World and the assessment of the threat of introduction into the New World.

Submitted October 10, 2006. Published August 22, 2007.
Math Subject Classifications: 34A12, 34D05, 92B05.
Key Words: Rift Valley fever; mosquito-borne disease; livestock disease; mathematical epidemiology; compartmental model; sensitivity analysis.

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Holly D. Gaff
College of Health Sciences
Old Dominion University
Norfolk VA 23529, USA
email: hgaff@odu.edu
David. M. Hartley
Georgetown University School of Medicine
Washington, DC 20007, USA
email: hartley@isis.georgetown.edu
  Nicole P. Leahy
Department of Epidemiology and Preventive Medicine
University of Maryland School of Medicine
Baltimore, MD 21201, USA
email: nicole.leahy@jax.org

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