2004 Conference on Diff. Eqns. and Appl. in Math. Biology, Nanaimo, 
BC, Canada.
Electronic Journal of Differential Equations,
Conference 12, 2005, pp. 143-158. 

Title: Mathematics and fisheries: Match or mismatch?

Author: Jon T. Schnute (Fisheries and Oceans Canada, Canada)
 
Abstract: 
 Mathematics plays a major role in contemporary
 fisheries management. Stock assessments often depend on elaborate
 models used to set catch levels and address other policy objectives. In
 recent years, the collapse of various important fish stocks has caused
 some critics to suggest that mathematical models actually obscure the
 truth by narrowing scientific understanding to the realm of
 quantifiable events. In the words of one fisherman, 
 ``Mathematics has highjacked the definition and position of real
 science.'' In this paper, I present a number of typical fishery
 models, examine their limitations, discuss controversies about their
 use, and explore possible alternatives. I draw on examples from
 economics and investment theory to illustrate the problem of making
 credible predictions about an uncertain future. The constraints of the
 real world, where people care deeply about policy consequences, have
 altered my scientific perspective as an applied mathematician. This
 paper reflects the evolution of thought that has accompanied my
 experience working for 28 years at the Pacific Biological Station in
 Nanaimo, B.C., the host city for this conference.

Published April 20, 2005.
Math Subject Classifications: 62P10, 92B05, 92B15.
Key Words: Fishery models; state space models; statistical decisions.