Electron. J. Differential Equations, Vol. 2020 (2020), No. 23, pp. 1-24.

### Modeling the control of COVID-19: impact of policy interventions and meteorological factors Jiwei Jia, Jian Ding, Siyu Liu, Guidong Liao, Jingzhi Li, Ben Duan, Guoqing Wang, Ran Zhang

Abstract:
In this article we propose a dynamical model with seven compartments to describe the transmission of COVID-19 in China. The home quarantine strategy has played a vital role in controlling the disease spread. Based on a Least-Squares procedure and officially published data, the estimation of parameters for the proposed model is obtained. The control reproduction number of most provinces in China are analyzed. Attention that the quarantine period must be long enough. Once the control strategy is removed, the disease still has high risk of human-to-human transmission continuously. In the study, a comprehensive meteorological index is introduced to represent the impact of meteorological factors. The effectiveness of vaccination is also considered in the model. We design detailed vaccination strategies for COVID-19 in different control phases and show the effectiveness of large scale vaccination.

Submitted February 22, 2020. Published March 16, 2020.
Math Subject Classifications: 92D30, 37N25.
Key Words: COVID-19; dynamical model; isolation strategy; vaccination strategy; meteorological index.
DOI: 10.58997/ejde.2020.23

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 Jiwei Jia School of Mathematics Jilin University Changchun, Jilin 130012, China email: jiajiwei@jlu.edu.cn Jian Ding School of Mathematics Jilin University Changchun, Jilin 130012, China email: dingjian17@mails.jlu.edu.cn Siyu Liu School of Public Health Jilin University Changchun, Jilin 130021, China email: liusiyu@jlu.edu.cn Guidong Liao School of Mathematics Jilin University Changchun, Jilin 130012, China email: liaogd18@mails.jlu.edu.cn Jingzhi Li Department of Mathematics Southern University of Science and Technology Shenzhen, Guangdong 518055, China email: lijz@sustech.edu.cn Ben Duan School of Mathematical Sciences Dalian University of Technology Dalian, Liaoning 116024, China email: bduan@dlut.edu.cn Guoqing Wang School of Basic Medical Science Jilin University Changchun, Jilin 130021, China email: qing@jlu.edu.cn Ran Zhang School of Mathematics Jilin University Changchun, Jilin 130012, China email: zhangran@jlu.edu.cn