Electron. J. Differential Equations, Vol. 2020 (2020), No. 23, pp. 1-24.
Modeling the control of COVID-19: impact of policy interventions
and meteorological factors
Jiwei Jia, Jian Ding, Siyu Liu, Guidong Liao,
Jingzhi Li, Ben Duan, Guoqing Wang, Ran Zhang
Abstract:
In this article we propose a dynamical model with seven compartments to
describe the transmission of COVID-19 in China.
The home quarantine strategy has played a vital role in controlling the
disease spread. Based on a Least-Squares procedure and officially
published data, the estimation of parameters for the proposed model is
obtained. The control reproduction number of most provinces in
China are analyzed. Attention that the quarantine period must be
long enough. Once the control strategy is removed, the disease still
has high risk of human-to-human transmission continuously.
In the study, a comprehensive meteorological index is introduced to
represent the impact of meteorological factors. The effectiveness of
vaccination is also considered in the model. We design detailed
vaccination strategies for COVID-19 in different control phases and
show the effectiveness of large scale vaccination.
Submitted February 22, 2020. Published March 16, 2020.
Math Subject Classifications: 92D30, 37N25.
Key Words: COVID-19; dynamical model; isolation strategy; vaccination strategy;
meteorological index.
DOI: 10.58997/ejde.2020.23
Show me the PDF file (2735 KB),
TEX file for this article.
 |
Jiwei Jia
School of Mathematics
Jilin University
Changchun, Jilin 130012, China
email: jiajiwei@jlu.edu.cn
|
|---|
 |
Jian Ding
School of Mathematics
Jilin University
Changchun, Jilin 130012, China
email: dingjian17@mails.jlu.edu.cn
|
|---|
 |
Siyu Liu
School of Public Health
Jilin University
Changchun, Jilin 130021, China
email: liusiyu@jlu.edu.cn
|
|---|
 |
Guidong Liao
School of Mathematics
Jilin University
Changchun, Jilin 130012, China
email: liaogd18@mails.jlu.edu.cn
|
|---|
 |
Jingzhi Li
Department of Mathematics
Southern University of Science and Technology
Shenzhen, Guangdong 518055, China
email: lijz@sustech.edu.cn
|
|---|
 |
Ben Duan
School of Mathematical Sciences
Dalian University of Technology
Dalian, Liaoning 116024, China
email: bduan@dlut.edu.cn
|
|---|
 |
Guoqing Wang
School of Basic Medical Science
Jilin University
Changchun, Jilin 130021, China
email: qing@jlu.edu.cn
|
|---|
 |
Ran Zhang
School of Mathematics
Jilin University
Changchun, Jilin 130012, China
email: zhangran@jlu.edu.cn
|
|---|
Return to the EJDE web page