Electron. J. Differential Equations, Vol. 2020 (2020), No. 64, pp. 1-17.

Assessing the efficiency of different control strategies for the COVID-19 epidemic

Cesar Castilho, Joao A. M. Gondim, Marcelo Marchesin, Mehran Sabeti

The goal of this work is to analyze the effects of control policies for the coronavirus (COVID-19) epidemic in Brazil. This is done by considering an age-structured SEIR model with a quarantine class and two types of controls. The first one studies the sensitivity with regard to the parameters of the basic reproductive number R0 which is calculated by a next generation method. The second one evaluates different quarantine strategies by comparing their relative total number of deaths.

Submitted April 6, 2020. Published June 24, 2020.
Math Subject Classifications: 92D30, 93C15, 34H05.
Key Words: Coronavirus; quarantine; epidemic; SEIR models.

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César Castilho
Departamento de Matemática
Universidade Federal de Pernambuco
Recife, PE CEP 50740-540 Brazil
email: castilho@dmat.ufpe.br
João A. M. Gondim
Unidade Acadêmica do Cabo de Santo Agostinho
Universidade Federal Rural de Pernambuco
Cabo de Santo Agostinho, PE
CEP 54518-430 Brazil
email: joao@dmat.ufpe.br
Marcelo Marchesin
Departamento de Matemática
Universidade Federal de Minas Gerais
Belo Horizonte, MG CEP 31270-000 Brazil
email: mdm@mat.ufmg.br
Mehran Sabeti
Instituto de Ciências Exatas e Tecnológicas
Universidade Federal de Viçosa Campus-Florestal
Vi\c cosa, MG CEP 35690-000 Brazil
email: mehran@ufv.br

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