Zhihong Zhao, Shaochun Li, Yulan Lu
Abstract:
Ivermectin has shown good effects for malaria control in clinical trial
stages because it can kill mosquitoes feeding on recently treated individuals.
In this article, we formulate and analyze a novel delay malaria transmission
model taking into account seasonality and ivermectin.
We show that the dynamics of the model is totally determined by the basic reproduction ratio
R0; that is, malaria will gradually die out if R0<1 and will persist if
R0>1.
Numerically, we verify the obtained theoretical results and evaluate the effect of ivermectin by related data of Kenya.
We find that our simulation of the impact agrees with the prediction of the existing clinical trials in which it takes at least 25 years to eliminate malaria from Kenya with malaria control measures intact.
Submitted November 16, 2021. Published April 7, 2022.
Math Subject Classifications: 92B05, 37N25.
Key Words: Malaria model; ivermectin; time delay; basic reproduction ratio; sensitivity analysis.
DOI: https://doi.org/10.58997/ejde.2022.29
Show me the PDF file (1454 KB), TEX file for this article.
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Zhihong Zhao School of Mathematics and Physics University of Science and Technology Beijing Beijing 100083, China email: zzh@ustb.edu.cn |
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Shaochun Li School of Mathematics and Physics University of Science and Technology Beijing Beijing 100083, China email: leeschun@foxmail.com |
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Yulan Lu School of Mathematics and Physics University of Science and Technology Beijing Beijing 100083, China email: luyulan@ustb.edu.cn |
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