Electron. J. Diff. Eqns., Vol. 2002(2002), No. 16, pp. 1-17.

Calculations of the hurricane eye motion based on singularity propagation theory

Vladimir Danilov, Georgii Omel'yanov, & Daniil Rozenknop

Abstract:
We discuss the possibility of using calculating singularities to forecast the dynamics of hurricanes. Our basic model is the shallow-water system. By treating the hurricane eye as a vortex type singularity and truncating the corresponding sequence of Hugoniot type conditions, we carry out many numerical experiments. The comparison of our results with the tracks of three actual hurricanes shows that our approach is rather fruitful.

Submitted November 7, 2001. Published February 18, 2002.
Math Subject Classifications: 35D99, 86A10.
Key Words: asymptotic behavior, forecast, hurricane.

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Vladimir Danilov
Moscow State Institute of Electronics and Mathematics,
B. Trekhsvyatitel'skii per., 3/12,
Moscow 109028, Russia
e-mail: pm@miem.edu.ru
Georgii Omel'yanov
Moscow State Institute of Electronics and Mathematics,
B. Trekhsvyatitel'skii per., 3/12,
Moscow 109028, Russia
Daniil Rozenknop
Moscow State Institute of Electronics and Mathematics,
B. Trekhsvyatitel'skii per., 3/12,
Moscow 109028, Russia

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